War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".