A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
