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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.